Oh I love me some Oscars. Not that I like many others don't constantly complain about the egregious snubs and such that plague it year after year (this year alone, there was the exclusion of Chris Nolan in Best Director, Leonardo DiCaprio in Best Actor, Andrew Garfield in Best Supporting Actor, etc.) but there's the novelty of it, the mere idea that here's one night where we forget about everything and watch enjoyably as some (mostly) good movies get honored. Yes it has its flaws (celebrities get more famous, blah blah) but I don't give a damn--I have fun watching the Oscars every year. And with the winners being announced tomorrow night (as of this writing), it's high-time I join the Oscar pool and post my predictions. I'm sure I'm not gonna be 100% right, but here we go.
Each prediction will be accompanied by
a
Rating of Assurance. This key goes from
Calling It (totally positive),
Pretty Damn Sure (pretty positive),
Pretty Sure (mostly positive but I have my doubts),
Sort Of Sure (doubtful but there's a chance), and
Just Guessing (talking out my ass). I'll also designate if my prediction is something I actually want to win, i.e, my
Preferred Pick. Without further ado...
Best Director
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| David Fincher, The Social Network |
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|
Everyone's divided over who's gonna win Best Picture: The Social Network or The King's Speech. But I'm going to wait for that one 'till the end. To start, I'm going to look at Best Director. The nominees are Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Ethan & Joel Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), and David O. Russell (The Fighter). And my prediction is: David Fincher for The Social Network. It's truly up in the air with Best Picture between Network and Speech, but Fincher's perfectionist, dazzling directing in The Social Network is at the level unmatched by any other film this year, especially Speech. And unlike Hooper, Fincher is a fully-respected director, believed to be cheated out of the Oscar his entire career. Hooper won the DGA Award, but like in 2002, I think this year the Academy will disagree with them. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick)
Best Actor
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| Colin Firth, The King's Speech |
Who knows for sure if The King's Speech will (really, unrightfully) sweep tomorrow's Oscar ceremony, but no matter what happens, there's really no doubt that it is a lock for Best Actor. The nominees are Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), and James Franco (127 Hours). The sure-fire winner is Colin Firth for The King's Speech. The Academy loves portrayals of royal British people and will gladly hand them the statue any time such a performance is even remotely good. Not that Firth isn't great in the role--he's able to take a complicated character who borders on asshole-territory into a level of sympathy that allows you to root for him to conquer his stutter--but my Preferred Pick is James Franco in 127 Hours, who is pulling more weight than anybody else nominated this year, having to basically be a one-man show for almost all of the movie. Still, Firth, having already won the SAG Award and the Golden Globe, is sure to triumph, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, so good for him. I'm Calling It.
Best Actress
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| Natalie Portman, Black Swan |
Another lock, but unlike above, my prediction for Best Actress is actually the one I'm rooting for too. The nominees are Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine). And my prediction is:
Natalie Portman in
Black Swan. Despite the
rising question concerning Natalie Portman's acting abilities,
Black Swan sees Portman committing herself completely to the role 100%, performing extremely demanding ballet dances herself, and losing a huge amount of weight from her already tiny body. This method-acting level of conversion is also met with her increasingly impressive performance as a woman losing her mind, which is actually more difficult to do than most actors seem to think (just ask the Cocoa Puffs bird). Portman's got the Golden Globe, SAG Award, most of the Critic's Associations awards, and even the Independent Spirit Award. There are only two things some people think lower her chances: the possible upset of Annette Bening (a valid argument, since she lost in '99 and '04 to Hilary Swank and the Academy likes to give people their dues down the line) , and the "
Norbit Principal" of her having recently done an Ashton Kutcher comedy with
No Strings Attached. Will Bening upset? Will doing a poor comedy ruin her chances? Nah. I'm
Calling It. (
Preferred Pick)
Best Supporting Actor
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| Christian Bale, The Fighter | | |
Now for Best Supporting Actor. And the nominees are: Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech). And without a doubt, the clear-cut and deserving winner is Christian Bale for The Fighter. This is the best performance of Bale's career, and his big, animated performance as Dicky Eklund in this movie is not only a blast to watch but also fascinatingly spot on to the actual Dicky himself. He's gotten all other awards so far, and the Academy's never nominated this unbelievably methodical actor before--for this film alone, he dropped a crazy amount of weight (not as severe as his weight lost for The Machinist, but still pretty crazy), shaved himself a bald spot, and even went missing from set for hours in order to get into the right mindset. His competition is pretty fierce, from Geoffrey Rush's extremely likable teddy bear performance in Speech to Jeremy Renner's terrifyingly unpredictable turn in The Town, but Bale still shines above all. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick)
Best Supporting Actress
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| Melissa Leo, The Fighter |
Now, with Best Supporting Actress things start to get...weird. The nominees are: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), and Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom). Now I wanna pause for a moment to point out the egregious inclusion of Steinfeld in Supporting Actress, when she is the main character of True Grit. Of course the reason for this is that she's a child, but Academy, if you're gonna include a child in your nominees, AT LEAST KNOW WHAT ROLE SHE PLAYS IN THE MOVIE. Don't just group her in Supporting because of her age. That's nothing to say that it's not actually that amazing of a performance in the first place; it's respectable, and while she's able to stay spunky and strong against big male characters, she's actually overshadowed by the actors who play those big male characters (Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon). And yes, she does sound "wooden" sometimes; this being a lose term, because I suppose that's the way character is written: to be sort of stiff and grounded. I digress enough, though. My prediction here is Melissa Leo for The Fighter. And it's that prediction that really makes this weird; because I didn't find her performance very Oscar worthy. It was good, but it wasn't "award" good; it surprised me greatly that she keeps getting these nominations, let alone all the wins. Amy Adams really deserves it more and is my Preferred Pick. Alas, with the SAG Award and Golden Globe with her, it seems that it's gonna be Leo for the Oscar. I'm Pretty Damn Sure.
Best Original Screenplay
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| Christopher Nolan, Inception |
Now we move onto the technical categories, but the one people actually sort of care about. Starting with Best Original Sceenplay. The nominees are Another Year (Mike Leigh), The Fighter (Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, and Eric Johnson), Inception (Christopher Nolan), The Kids Are All Right (Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg), and The King's Speech (David Seidler). And my prediction is: Christopher Nolan for Inception. It's the most intricately put together story in SEVERAL years; it's a movie where the dialogue is pieced together right to not be too dazzling but fit tightly within the threads of the complicated, beautifully rendered story. An original, engrossing plot, and if they don't end up giving it to Nolan, the world will officially declare that indeed: the Academy hates Christopher Nolan. That's something I doubt the Academy could afford. The Academy is mostly actors, so this is category is all on the shoulders of the writers in the organization, and they without a doubt love this movie. Plus, Nolan already got the WGA Award, so that should give him an advantage. But of course, there's the unfortunate possible "King's Speech Upset" that seems to be plaguing all of the categories this year, but that would be an honest crime: its dialogue is decent, and the story is uplifting enough, but this is an Actors-and-Directors movie and I think the Academy will see that when the votes are tallied. Well, one can hope at least. I'm Pretty Damn Sure. (Preferred Pick)
Best Adapted Screenplay
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| Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network |
Now for Best Adapted Screenplay. The nominees are: 127 Hours (David Boyle and Simon Beaufoy), The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin), Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich), True Grit (Joel and Ethan Coen), and Winter's Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini). And my prediction: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network. Among my favorite screenplays of all time, Sorkin's beautifully rendered, hyper-fast, intricately constructed dialogue is mind-blowing. The story is filled with strong thematic bonds and a tightly pieced first-second-and-third acts. If the Academy does not hand that statue to Sorkin, any and all respect for them shall vanish. Sorkin has no competition here (though among them all, True Grit is my second favorite script) and it should and shall be a sure-fire win. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick).
Best Animated Feature
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| Toy Story 3 |
The nominees for Best Animated Feature are: How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, and Toy Story 3. And unless hell freezes over, the undeniable projected winner is Toy Story 3. I mean, Jesus. It's nominated for Best Picture. There is no doubt it will win, no matter what the completely bought-and-biased Annie Awards seem to think (How to Train Your Dragon was definitely good, but not THAT GOOD, ANNIES). It's a beautiful, emotionally gripping and heart-wrenching, greatly plotted, fun, hilarious, mature movie that has already cemented itself as one of the single greatest animated movies of all time. This series never stops being amazing. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick)
Best Documentary
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| Inside Job |
I've seen one movie out of the five nominees for Best Documentary. These nominees are: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland, Inside Job, Restrepo, and Waste Land. I only saw Exit Through the Gift Shop, and that was a sheer masterpiece; hilarious, engrossing, entertaining, and a hell of a lot of fun. It's a documentary that actually makes you like documentaries as much as you would a normal film. Unfortunately, I actually doubt it will win. It's simply not "important" enough to the Academy, as it covers something that has nothing to do with politics or other things the Academy thinks "matters". HOWEVER, that doesn't completely blow it's chances out the window, because it's actually the most accessible documentary of the year (POINT ONE for "audience appeal") and the slimmest odds of the legendary Bansky being there at the Academy would thrill the attention-whore members of the Academy (POINT TWO for "publicity"). HOWEVER however, I still don't think it has enough of a chance to succeed. Therefore, my prediction goes to Inside Job, a doc about the ongoing financial crisis. Perfect material for the Best Documentary. This deserves to go to Gift Shop, but most signs point to Job. I'm Pretty Sure.
The rest of these predictions are gonna be short (except for the final one, i.e., Best Picture), considering they're all technical categories and (sans a select few) are a tad boring. So, I'm gonna merely post them as snippet listings.
- BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The nominees are: 127 Hours, How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, The King's Speech, and The Social Network. I should get it out of the way: I didn't think the score for Inception was the best score of the year. Amazing composition, Hans Zimmer is a god, but I preferred the score to The Social Network; very atypical score, very vibrant, very fun. Still, unless The King's Speech (unrightfully, again) upsets, Inception is my prediction here, since it's the Academy's chance to honor Zimmer and is a damn good score still. I'm Pretty Damn Sure.
- BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Nominees are: "Coming Home" (Country Song), "I See the Light" (Tangled), "If I Rise" (127 Hours), and "We Belong Together" (Toy Story). This is...tough. There's never really predicting this category, and except for "Coming Home" I think all the nominees are perfect Oscar songs. "If I Rise" is my favorite from them, but I think it's gonna go to "I See the Light". I noted in my Tangled review that it's not the best song and is sort of rehashed, but the Oscars love Disney songs, and with no Burlesque songs in the way, it's a solid pick. I'm Sort of Sure.
- BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The nominees are Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and True Grit. Roger Deakins's work for True Grit seems like the most fitting pick here, and it would be a nice retribution for his unrecognized great work from the past, but Inception seems like a more challenging and impressive thing to shoot and is my prediction for this. I'm Pretty Sure. (Preferred Pick)
- BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: The nominees are: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, Hereafter, Inception, and Iron Man 2. Seriously, why is Hereafter nominated? For one effect in the beginning? What about Scott Pilgrim or Tron: Legacy, huh? Or if we're going for "one effect wonders", why not The Social Network and its seamless effect of making the Winklevoss twins actually twins, huh? HUH?! Anyways, prediction is Inception. Dazzling visuals and some damn fine old-school techniques thrown in among the computers. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick)
- BEST ART DIRECTION: Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, Inception, The King's Speech, and True Grit. I really loved Harry Potter's art direction, as in this flick, we get more elaborate, menacing set pieces than the usual Hogwarts backdrops. Still, I think the Academy's holding off any Potter-Oscars for next year with the final film, so my pick goes to The King's Speech and it's tight, compact indoor sets. Inception's are actually better, but we all know the Academy has a hard-on for Speech, judgment aside. I'm Pretty Sure.
- BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: Like every year, I haven't seen any film nominated for Best Foreign-Language Film. The nominees for it are: Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, and Outside the Law. Out of all these, only Biutiful has a nomination elsewhere (and a big one at that; Best Actor), so due to that I'm going to say it wins. I'm Pretty Sure.
- BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Oh shit the shorts. Damn these. Nominees are Day & Night, The Gruffalo, Let's Pollute, The Lost Thing, and Madagascar, a Journey Diary. Only saw Day & Night, and considering it's a clever Disney short, the Academy might pick it. I'm Sort Of Sure. (Preferred Pick)
- BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Bah. Gotta blow through these unrecognizable categories. Killing in the Name, Poster Girl, Strangers No More, Sun Come Up, and The Warriors of Quigang are the nominees. I'm gonna go with The Warriors of Quigang due to the environmental factor. I'm Just Guessing.
- BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Noms: The Confesion, The Crush, God of Love, Na Wewe, and Wish 143. Wish 143 sounds uncomfortably hilarious and biting (British child makes a Make-A-Wish wish to lose his virginity before he dies). I'm Just Guessing.
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The nominees: Alice in Wonderland, I Am Love, The King's Speech, The Tempest, and True Grit. Ohai, The Tempest. Almost forgot that when Julie Taymor isn't killing people with arachnid-based superheroes she makes eye-candy movies. Anyways, The King's Speech, which also won the CDA Award for a Period Film. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick)
- BEST MAKEUP: Noms: Barney's Vision, The Way Back, and The Wolfman. The Wolfman's great, old-school make-up and prosthetics were were practically the best part of the whole movie. I'm Pretty Sure. (Preferred Pick)
- BEST SOUND EDITING and BEST SOUND MIXING: Basically the same thing, right? Right. First, Inception, Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy, True Grit, and Unstoppable. Second, Inception, The King's Speech, Salt, The Social Network, and True Grit. It would be interesting to see Toy Story 3 win Sound Editing, considering animated movies have to do everything from scratch, but anyways, both shall go to Inception, and I'm cool with that. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick, for the second category at least)
- BEST FILM EDITING: Nominees: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, and The Social Network. The Social Network by a long shot; great, rapid-fire editing for a great, rapid-fire movie. I'm Calling It. (Preferred Pick)
Now that
that's all done, time for the big kahuna...
BEST PICTURE:
The big ten nominees are: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter's Bone. Alright, Academy. We know: You LOOOOOVE The King's Speech. But everyone else LOOOOOOVES The Social Network, so shouldn't you? Huh? Well, here's the deal: I don't actually KNOW what these cooky sons of bitches are gonna pick for Best Picture tomorrow. I am DYING for
The Social Network to come home with the big prize, because it is a superbly crafted movie that defines this generation and is thus actually more impacting at the least of all other nominees, ESPECIALLY it's only true competition,
The King's Speech, which--while uplifting and well decorated--really only boils down into costume drama Oscar Bait. And of course that's the real reason it's probably gonna win. But ya know what: screw it. I'm going to make a bold statement and say that--even though I might be wrong, and probably am--
The Social Network will win tomorrow night and show the world that the Academy knows what the hell it's doing.
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| The Social Network |
It's the best movie of the year by far. And it's the most important movie of this generation by far. The odds (i.e. The King's Speech) are against it, but ya know what? I'm saying it'll triumph, for the sheer reason that it is the clear-cut superior film. I'm Pretty Damn Sure. (Preferred Pick).
So be sure to catch the Oscars February 27, 2011, on ABC, to see who wins. Meanwhile, what do you think? Am I right? Wrong? Crazy? Wasting time? Throwing up a conclusion for this thing? Leave your comments as I'd love to see them. Peace out.
